Global PC shipments are now only expected to crawl forward at two per cent growth in both 2025 and 2026, slashed from previous rosier estimates of four and five per cent. Smartphone figures fared no better, with 2025 projections halved from two per cent to just one per cent, and 2026 now pegged at zero growth—1,235 million units both years.
UBS analysts warned: “We expect the tariff burden to disrupt PC demand by H225 once tech and reciprocal tariffs move ahead.”
The US market, accounting for nearly a quarter of global PC units and almost a third of PC value, is set to take the biggest bruising. UBS reckons PC demand Stateside will shrink 1.1 per cent in 2025 and only limp back 0.8 per cent the following year. “A 20 per cent average hike on the bill of materials for US PCs could see some absorbed by the supply chain and some price hike that dampens ~10 per cent of PC demand,” the analysts noted.
Smartphone makers aren’t escaping the carnage either. Even with a pause on “reciprocal” tariffs, there’s still a 20 per cent baseline hit for China-made phones and 10 per cent for kit coming out of India and Vietnam. Yet, UBS pointed out that the correlation between GDP growth and phone shipments isn’t exactly rock-solid—just 47 per cent historically.
While India’s role in hardware production is supposedly “poised to strengthen” as manufacturers bail out of China, the numbers suggest more whimper than bang. PC shipments there are set to rise a feeble 1.6 per cent in 2025 and just 0.7 per cent in 2026, barely a blip globally.
The fruity cargo cult Apple, which shipped 56 per cent of all smartphones in the US last year and relies on the country for 30 per cent of its iPhone volumes, is expected to “flex up India production as much as possible to cover a portion of the US market,” analysts said. But with India still only producing about five per cent of global iPhone units, the pivot looks more symbolic than seismic.
Samsung’s broader supply base—split between Vietnam, India, China, and Korea—gives it a leg up in this geopolitical game of musical chairs, but even the Koreans aren’t immune to this economic mess.
Commercial PCs took the biggest hit in the forecast revisions. UBS cut 2025/26 estimates from 169/176 million to 163/166 million, citing corporates delaying upgrades amid “stagflationary pressures.” Consumer PC projections also dipped to 87 million in 2025 and 88 million in 2026, down from 88 and 91 million, respectively.
For now, some artificial buoyancy remains. Q1 2025 saw a 4.8 per cent uptick in global PC shipments, driven by “rush orders” as vendors preloaded before tariffs kicked in. Taiwanese notebook ODMs also saw a seasonal bump, thanks to Windows 10’s looming expiry and some pre-tariff panic builds.
