Nvidia boss Jensen Huang revealed last week that the Trump administration has finally given the green light to sell H20 AI accelerators to China. For now, Nvidia will rely on existing stock to meet the pent-up demand in a market that’s been locked out of high-end AI silicon for far too long. But production isn’t roaring back to life just yet.

According to Taiwan’s Ctee, Nvidia and its supply chain partners aren’t rushing to restart H20 manufacturing. Many fabs, including TSMC, retooled their production lines for other products after the initial US export restrictions, and shifting back isn’t trivial. Demand for other process nodes is already sky-high, and even if wafer production resumes, fresh H20 chips wouldn’t hit the market for months.

The cocaine nose jobs of Wall Street might be expecting billions in revenue from China flowing into Nvidia’s books, but that’s unlikely to happen immediately. TSMC and others reportedly see little incentive to disrupt their current schedules for what could be a short-term demand spike.

For now, Nvidia is expected to ship millions of H20 units from existing inventory, which conveniently helps recover write-offs from last quarter. But long-term production remains uncertain. If large orders don’t materialise, restarting H20 supply could become more trouble than it’s worth.

The dark satanic rumour mill suggests Nvidia is lining up multiple alternatives for China’s AI market, including the B20 AI chip, RTX Pro 6000D, and the B30 AI chip, each aimed at different slices of the market. Suppliers could build new lines for these rather than reviving old H20 production, letting Nvidia move forward rather than rehashing old hardware.

So while the future looks cautiously optimistic, don’t expect smooth sailing. By year-end, Nvidia’s China business will still be laced with uncertainty as it juggles inventory clearance, chip supply constraints, and an ever-changing AI demand curve.