"By my count, Linux has over 11 per cent of the desktop market," he claims. He reached that number by adding in the bits that StatCounter and the US Digital Analytics Program keep mislabelling as “unknown” or pretending are something other than Linux with a fancy coat of paint, and dividing by his shoe size.
What appears to have set him off was the numbers Zorin OS reported last week. For those who came in late, “Zorin OS 18 has amassed 1 million downloads in just over a month since its release.” The outfit said “78 per cent of these downloads came from Windows” users. That is a lot of Windows refugees downloading a 3.5-gigabyte ISO.
StatCounter numbers show the Linux desktop grew from a weedy 1.5 per cent in 2020 to above four per cent in 2024 and around five per cent in the US by 2025. Its latest tally shows Linux at 3.49 per cent and “unknown” at 4.21 per cent. ChromeOS adds another 3.67 per cent, and that is Linux as well, just with Chrome glued on top. Vaughan-Nichols thinks that if you add it all together, you end up with more than 11 per cent using Linux desktops in one shape or another.
The numbers look even healthier when you widen the field to phones and tablets. Android holds 41.71 per cent of the US market and a mighty 72.55 per cent globally. If you count every Linux-based device that ordinary people produce each day, the penguin is already the top operating system, and Windows is tagging along behind.
The US government sees 1.6 billion sessions a month, and that gives Linux a 5.8 per cent share on the desktop. When I first poked at DAP a decade ago, the number was 0.67 per cent. Add ChromeOS at 1.7 per cent and Android at 15.8 per cent, and you get 23.3 per cent of visits coming from Linux-based systems. Windows 10 stubbornly holds 16.9 per cent while Windows 11 limps in at 13.5 per cent. Millions are still glued to Windows 10 despite the security warnings.
Lansweeper’s scan of 15 million consumer PCs shows Linux at just over six per cent. The trend is slow but steady, and the reasons are stacking up. Microsoft has shoved its priorities into Microsoft 365, the cloud and assorted AI tricks while Windows itself drifts around like a neglected houseplant. Gaming works far better on Linux thanks to Steam and Proton. Hardware support has improved, and people are sick of being farmed for data.
Other factors have joined the party. Plenty of excellent Windows 10 machines cannot “upgrade” to Windows 11 because of Microsoft’s bizarre hardware lockdowns. ControlUp reckons about 25 per cent are stranded. A UK survey by Which in September 2025 found 26 per cent of people intended to stay on Windows 10 even after updates ended, and six per cent planned to switch to an alternative such as Linux.
Vaughan-Nichols claims that things will only get better for Linux. Users complain that Windows 10 is good enough, Windows 11 is not meaningfully better, and the forced interface changes feel like someone rearranged their kitchen. Gaming types grumbled when Windows 11’s October update slowed down Nvidia-based gaming PCs. Others do not fancy an AI agent burbling over their shoulder.
Digital sovereignty concerns are pushing Europeans away from Windows. EU governments are wary of placing sensitive data in a system that could be pulled about by US political pressure. That is why some states have binned Microsoft software for open-source alternatives, and why a group even built EU OS, a Fedora-based Linux desktop using KDE Plasma.
The UK is twitchy too. A 2024 Computer Weekly report stated that Microsoft told Scottish police it could not guarantee that Microsoft 365 and Azure data would remain in the UK.
All of this sends more people marching towards Linux. Windows keeps making itself less appealing, and the penguin looks more inviting every month.