According to the cocaine nose jobs of Wall Street, demand for PCs and smartphones is cooling off, and with it the appetite for semiconductors. TSMC’s orders for consumer-end chips are slipping, even as AI and high-speed computing (HPC) keep the lights on.

The beancounters reckon TSMC’s fourth quarter might end up lower than its record-smashing third quarter, in New Taiwan dollars and greenbacks. That would be the first time in nearly a decade that the supposedly lucrative fourth quarter fails to outperform the third, all thanks to rising tariffs and shrinking consumer wallets.

As usual, TSMC declined to comment on the speculation. In July, it claimed there had been “no change in customer behaviour” so far in the second half of 2025, though it did admit there were risks tied to uncertainty from tariffs, especially in the more price-sensitive markets.

The only thing holding steady is the AI and HPC racket, which continues to guzzle up 3nm and 5nm chips. But outside that bubble everything else looks shakier.

TSMC is still expected to post stronger numbers than it did a year ago, just not enough to break any new records. The company had previously forecast a 30 per cent jump in US dollar revenue for the full year, up from its April guidance, riding the AI wave.

In the first half, TSMC’s year-on-year US dollar revenue shot up about 40 per cent. For the third quarter, the chipmaker pencilled in $31.8 billion to $33 billion, averaging around $32.4 billion, a quarterly rise of 8 per cent. But fourth-quarter estimates now suggest a single-digit to mid-double-digit percentage dip from that figure.

Still, it’s not a total wash. Revenue will likely remain better than the same time last year. Just don’t expect any new records while the tariff hammer keeps swinging.