TrendForce, which has been adding up some numbers and dividing by its shoe size, has found that the big three major DRAM OEMs have decided it’s curtains for DDR4 in PCs, servers and mobile LPDDR4X, declaring these lines end-of-life.
That move has triggered a wave of panic buying and stockpiling of older chips ahead of the usual seasonal spike in Q3. General DRAM prices are forecast to climb between 10 and 15 per cent quarter-on-quarter, with total DRAM growth hitting 20 per cent when you include high bandwidth memory.
PC and server makers are scrambling to secure DDR4 stocks before they vanish, but manufacturing in Taiwan is stretched and product configurations aren’t matching demand. TrendForce reckons DDR4 will stay scarce for a while.
Consumer DDR4 users are in for a kicking. Prices are set to jump 40 to 45 per cent in Q3, as manufacturers prioritise server contracts and smaller buyers get trampled under the pricing bus. DDR5, meanwhile, is experiencing more modest hikes because of its higher production concentration, showing a clear split in pricing between legacy and next-gen DRAM.
US tariff exemptions are expiring and PC makers are piling on orders to get ahead of any retaliatory import charges. DRAM inventories are rising as a result, but with factories shifting to server-grade memory, PC DDR4 and DDR5 supply is being throttled. PC DRAM prices are expected to swell between eight and 13 per cent.
Server DRAM pricing is creeping up, by three to eight per cent, as data centres and AI platforms continue to hoover up capacity. Some OEMs even delayed their DDR4 retirement plans to ride a second-quarter buying wave, which in turn disrupted their transitions to newer platforms.
The LPDDR segment is another mess. Since April, US and South Korean OEMs have begun phasing out LPDDR4X supply for smartphones and laptops. However, the processors haven’t caught up, and panic demand has kicked in. TrendForce predicts LPDDR4X prices will soar by 23 to 28 per cent in Q3. LPDDR5X, by comparison, is forecast to rise a gentler five to ten per cent.
Graphics DRAM pricing is rising too. Nvidia’s new graphics cards are pushing demand for GDDR7, but low-end boards and AMD kit are still leaning on GDDR6. That has led to shortages and a notable price uptick, especially for GDDR6.
So while DRAM vendors chase AI riches and high-margin kit, punters still clinging to legacy tech are paying the price.