IBM now claims it is on course to build the world’s first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, the system will live in the company’s Poughkeepsie, New York bunker and is expected to be 20,000 times more powerful than today's quantum prototypes. According to IBM quantum boss Jay Gambetta, the science is now in place and all that remains is the engineering.
“I feel more comfortable than ever that a fault-tolerant quantum computer will exist before the end of this decade. We are putting error correction in detail on our roadmap because we believe now we’ve solved all the scientific challenges.”
While this sounds great, there is the issue of qubits trip over thermal noise and throwing tantrums at the slightest electrical twitch. Big Blue says it's cracking that nut with new qLDPC codes and clever use of traditional computing to detect and fix errors on the fly. It even roped in startup SEEQC to shrink the sprawling racks of hardware into something that might eventually fit into a cabinet instead of a lab.
Other quantum players, including Microsoft, Google, Amazon and a grab bag of lesser-known outfits like D-Wave and Quantinuum, have their own pitches, but none has produced anything beyond glorified calculators. Amazon, for example, recently showed off a chip that cuts errors by 90 per cent, still not enough to reach fault tolerance.
Gambetta is convinced IBM’s hybrid approach can stabilise the tech in time for a commercial breakthrough.
Gartner analyst Chirag Dekate is not buying the hype just yet. He warned that quantum is still missing its “ChatGPT moment”, a clear demonstration of impact and utility. Right now, it is all maths and maybes.
IDC analyst Heather West was a bit more optimistic, calling IBM’s vision a wake-up call to the tech world. “This is a real technology, and it’s coming to fruition as we speak."
Still, IBM’s plans are notably thin on when this fault-tolerant marvel will be commercially available or what it will cost. Businesses might want to start thinking about quantum algorithms, but no one is betting the datacentre just yet.